Iranian Threat?

Iran has become the new cause of some conservatives. During Tuesday’s GOP Presidential debate, Duncan Hunter said he would authorize the use of tactical nuclear weapons to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. I hear other rumblings too. Last week heard one conservative say he prays that Bush will bomb Iran.

Well I don’t get it. Actually I do get it, but figure it is all a sham. What we are being told is not the reality of the situation. To a tin foil hat wearing nut case like me, the reality looks like this:

Iran is a democracy. Not one that follows the western model to be sure, but certainly more so than the former Soviet Union. Or our allies Pakistan or Saudi Arabia. The religious fundamentalists have a lot of influence on the lives of Iranians, but there is an opposition and forces that would like to see a more liberal society in that country. This opposition is tolerated and given a chance might even be able to exert some influence. Would Iran become a secular state in a generation? Probably not, however remember that the country does have a democratic tradition that was squashed during the cold war.

The last thing the U.S. conservatives want is a liberal, secular Iran. This would present many problems for their allies in the region. Additionally, it eliminates an external enemy. The classic solution of a regime without a real base of support is to create external enemies to distract the populous from domestic issues. The conservatives need external enemies to distract us from the complete failure of conservative economic and social policies. Because conservatives need a threat, and Iran conveniently fills that role, they take actions that push Iran more and more toward the theocratic conservatives. I see this as a symbiosis of sorts. The external threat of the United States, helps to keep the theocratic conservatives in Iran in power.

It is useful to get beyond the domestic media when it comes to Iran. We only hear a very narrow party line in this country. This link to the BBC back ground page on Iran gives a more rational perspective here:

Be it Iran, or Chavez in Venezuela, we in the United States, get the line that these governments are somehow irrational. From what I observe, conservatives feel that anyone who does not completely and enthusiastically agree with them is dismissed as irrational or crazy. This is reminiscent of the former Soviet Union, where not being completely happy with the “workers paradise” created by the fascists (no they were not any more socialists than the Chinese are today) in that country might land you in a mental institution.

So let’s just take a different perspective on Iran for a moment. It is hard, we are bombarded with a contrary perspective, and you may experience a bit of cognitive dissonance as in the Tom Tomorrow cartoon here:

Still suppose Iran has rational leaders, who, although they do not have the same core values as us, none the less want what is best for the people of Iran. Also suppose they see outside threats from a world and regional nuclear powers, and not without reason, fear attack or invasion by these powers. Anyone who has studied deterrence theory knows that when two parties have nuclear weapons, the likelihood of them being used diminishes. Nuclear weapons are additionally the best deterrent to ground invasion. In spite of what you may want to believe about the bomb, it really is an instrument of peace among rational actors. The latest example being India-Pakistan.

Now let’s take another wild leap. Iran is a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty. The official line of the Iranian government is that their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. All of the controversy is because we, the United States, say they are liars. As a result we have created a hostile environment where Iran has not allowed IAEA inspectors complete access to their facilities. It is interesting that the IAEA report on this matter is restricted. I wonder what is so secret? I wonder what would happen if we just took Iran at their word and allowed them to have a nuclear energy program that did not violate the NPT?

There is a rub though. The capability to enrich Uranium is the key to being able to develop a bomb. An Iran with nuclear weapons threatens the hegemony of the only nuclear power in the region. It that a bad thing? Let’s take another baby step away from the conservative propaganda. If deterrence theory is correct, and nuclear weapons help to keep the peace, another nuclear power in the region would most likely make it more peaceful. The outcome might not be the most economically advantageous to the allies of our American conservatives, but it might actually be a good thing for both the majority of the people in the region and the world as a whole. Now, I am just a nut with a funny hat on, but I really don’t believe that the Iranians would give a bomb to “terrorists”. If you do a little research you will find the “suitcase bomb” as it is portrayed in the MSM is a myth. (Compact nuclear weapons take a lot of development, have low yields, and are still beyond the ability of a single person to practically lift and carry around) Giving a bomb to terrorists is irrational, and I just cannot for the life of me see the Iranian government as being any more irrational then our current administration.

But to a nut case like me the current strategy makes sense from the perspective on the conservatives. Even provoking Iran to build nuclear weapons makes sense. Attacking Iran makes sense. It all makes sense if your goal is to perpetuate a “long war” and insure conflict for years to come.